Assessment of Current Ice Conditions Relevant to Distribution and Access of Walrus
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Synopsis: A low in the central Bering Sea Friday will move southeast to the Alaska Peninsula through Saturday. Low pressure will remain in place over the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta Sunday, while a low moves east across the Bering Sea Monday through Thursday. A weather front will move onshore the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta Wednesday morning and move north across St. Lawrence Island and the Seward Peninsula Thursday.
Near St. Lawrence Island
A polynya south of the island extends up to 125 miles (201 km) from the coast and contains open water. Another polynya extends up to 25 miles (40 km) north of the island and contains very open pack ice. Consolidated pack ice consisting of big to giant floes extends north and east beyond this polynya 50 to 80 miles (80 to 129 km). West of the island is open pack ice consisting of small to big floes approximately 25 miles (40 km).
Nome
Shorefast ice extends up to 3 miles (5 km) offshore along the Nome coastline. Beyond the shorefast ice is very close pack ice consisting of big to vast floes extending up to 70 miles (113 km) south and southeast of Nome. East of Port Safety, much of Norton Sound is open water except for an area of very close pack ice in the middle of the sound.
Nome port entrance webcam (via AOOS webpage): https://bering-sea.portal.aoos.org/?ls=79875242-e362-65cb-914e-fed20ff9…
Brevig Mission/Port Clarence Area
Shorefast ice remains within the area from Port Clarence to Brevig Mission. To the west of Port Clarence, the polynya extends 30 miles (48 km) to the west and is open water. Beyond the polynya is consolidated ice consisting mainly of vast to giant floes.
Wales to Shishmaref
Shorefast ice extends up to 4 miles (6 km) offshore except up to 14 miles (23 km) offshore near Wales. A polynya then extends up to 8 miles (13 km) and contains very open pack ice. Consolidated ice consisting of big to giant floes then extends north beyond the polynya. Between Wales and Shishmaref, there is an area of open pack ice then a polynya of open water extending north up to 90 miles (145 km) from the Wales to Shishmaref coastline.
Diomede
Some compact ice remains between the islands. There is a small polynya north of the island up to 8 miles (13 km). Consolidated ice consisting of mainly vast to giant floes surrounds the island and up to 13 miles (21 km) east of the island. A polynya with open water then extends to the shorefast ice near Wales.
Forecast Discussion
Ice Forecast
Sea ice will drift south through Monday (May 20) and new sea ice may form at night within existing polynyas. Sea ice movement will be to the west and southwest Tuesday (May 21) through Thursday (May 23).
Wind Synopsis
Near St Lawrence Island, southeast winds of 15 to 20 knots (17 to 23 mph) expected Friday (May 17) becoming north 10 to 15 knots (12 to 17 mph) Saturday (May 18) and Sunday (May 19). On Monday (May 20) winds shift to the east 10 to 15 knots (12 to 17 mph) and persist into Wednesday (May 22) before turning southeast 10 to 15 knots (12 to 17 mph) on Thursday (May 23).
Near Wales and Diomede, south to southeast winds of 15 to 20 knots (17 to 23 mph) expected Friday (May 17), becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots (17 to 23 mph) on Saturday (May 18) and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots (12 to 17 mph) on Sunday (May 19) and Monday (May 20). On Tuesday (May 21) winds shift to the east and increase to 15 to 20 knots (17 to 23 mph) and persist through Wednesday (May 22), before shifting to the southeast on Thursday (May 23).
Near Shishmaref, southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots (12 to 17 mph) Friday (May 17) become north 10 to 15 knots (12 to 17 mph) on Saturday (May 18), diminishing to 5 to 10 knots (6 to 12 mph) on Sunday (May 19). Winds turn east Monday (May 20) and increase Tuesday (May 21) to 10 to 15 knots (12 to 17 mph) before shifting southeast Wednesday (May 22) and Thursday (May 23).
Near Port Clarence, southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots (12 to 17 mph) Friday (May 17) become north 10 to 15 knots (12 to 17 mph) on Saturday (May 18) and then shift to the northeast on Sunday (May 19). Winds become easterly 10 to 15 knots (12 to 17 mph) on Monday (May 20) and persist through Wednesday (May 22) before becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots (12 to 17 mph) on Thursday (May 23).
Near Nome, east winds of 5 to 10 mph Friday (May 17) shift north and increase Saturday (May 18) to 15 to 20 mph (17 to 23 mph). On Sunday (May 19) winds become northeast and diminish to 5 to 10 knots (6 to 12 mph). Winds shift to the east Monday (May 20) and increase to 10 to 15 knots (12 to 17 mph), shifting to the southeast Tuesday (May 21), diminishing to 5 to 10 knots (6 to 12 mph) on Wednesday (May 22) and Thursday (May 23).
Temperature Trend
High temperatures in the low to mid 30s through the week, except near Nome where highs will be in the upper 30s to around 40. Low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s for Savoonga, Wales, and Shishmaref. Diomede will see slightly cooler overnight temperatures in the low to mid 20s, while overnight lows will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s at Port Clarence, and in the low to mid 20s at Nome.
Daily Weather, Wind, and Temperature Updates
The National Weather Service provides twice-daily, text only updates on the weather, wind, and temperature conditions in specific geographical zones. An interactive weather map for access to other Alaskan zones can be found here: http://weather.gov/anchorage/ice
Higher resolution satellite images and wind maps (wind updated daily) can be viewed here: http://www.weather.gov/afg/SIWO_overview
The Alaska Ocean Observing System shares a variety of weather and sea ice related resources in their Bering Sea Portal at https://bering-sea.portal.aoos.org/.
Marine forecast for the West Coast and Arctic Coast
Remote Sensing Images
Observations and Comments
Observations of Sea Ice Development
Observations from Wales
Monday, 13 May 2024 – Abel Apatiki
Here are some pictures from yesterday (Sunday) in Wales boating time.
Mother's day boating, 5 to 6 miles N-NW yesterday (Sunday; bottom photo).
Observations from Gambell
Friday, 17 May 2024 – Clarence Irrigoo, Jr.
From my door the ice is moving north fast, rain and fog from south, lots of murres flying.
Observations from Port Clarence, Brevig Mission, and Cape Douglas
Friday, 17 May 2024 – Marcus Barr
Bunch of sea ice came back up from the strong SE winds. Shorefast ice broke off about couple hundred yards from the boat launch. Quite a few hunters got walrus last week.
Observations from Diomede
Friday, 17 May 2024 – Marty Eeleengayouq Ozenna
We’re open to the north of the village an closed in from the south but has been opening closing, also 20–25 knots south wind sunshine.
Observations from Shishmaref
Sunday, 19 May 2024 – Curtis Nayokpuk
Hunters heading out to the launch site (Pic w/ water clouds on horizon) no time to post on SIWO (Friday). Crews returning successful with Bearded Seals.
Observations from Savoonga
Sunday, 19 May 2024 – Aqef Waghiyi
Temp 50.4 degrees, wind chill 54.7 degrees, humidity 58.2, heat index 54.3, dew point 41.3, barometric pressure 1013.6, pressure 1013.7, wind SE less than 7-14 mph.
Few boats went out the other day. They got bull walrus. Couple boats got female with calf. Couple boats might’ve went out today.
Observations from Scammon Bay
Sunday, 19 May 2024 – Spoon Bell
The ice edge in Scammon Bay.
Additional Comments Provided by Local Experts and Other Contributors
Shared by the Alaska Ocean Observing System (AOOS) for 15–23 May 2024
Visit the SIWO Facebook page @seaiceforwalrus to view this animation showing the predicted movement of ice predicted by the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Snapshots from the forecast show ice coverage from 0% (black) to 100% (white) and arrows show the relative speed and direction of the ice. A light boundary is drawn at 15% predicted ice cover to highlight the ice edge, but ice may be predicted to extend beyond it. Some bays, lagoons, and areas very close to shore are not covered by the model. (Image produced by the Alaska Ocean Observing System / Axiom Data Science).
