Assessment of Current Ice Conditions Relevant to Distribution and Access of Walrus
Near St. Lawrence Island
Satellite imagery clearly shows the impacts of persistent northerly flow in the Bering Strait region this past week. Beyond the shorefast ice on northern coastline lies a highly consolidated region of pack ice that has most likely formed ridges as the first year thin to first year thick ice buckles under the wind stress. Northwesterly flow off the coast of eastern Siberia has formed a polynya stretching from beyond the shorefast ice of the Siberian coastline down to the western coast of St. Lawrence Island. A large polynya stretching up to 80 nm wide has formed beyond the shorefast ice along the southern coast of St. Lawrence Island. Both polynyas have new and young ice forming rapidly within them.
Wales to Shishmaref
Northwest flow along the coastline from Wales to Shishmaref has consolidated the thick pack ice beyond the shorefast ice. There is still slow export of highly consolidated pack ice through the Bering Strait. The extent of the shorefast ice currently varies from roughly 9 miles off Mugisiitokiwik to 18 miles off Ikpek to 5 miles off Shishmaref. The polyna located beyond the shorefast ice within Kotzebue Sound lies from roughly 20 miles northeast of Shishmaref to the coast near Tikizat. The polyna has frozen over with young and new ice and the northwest flow is closing in the polyna with first year ice.
5 to 10 Day Forecast
Air temperatures will remain below freezing throughout the next 10 days. Moderate north winds of 20-25 mph (15 to 20 kt) will subside this weekend to less than 15 mph (10 kt). These lights winds will remain through early next week. A low pressure system will move into the southern Bering Sea Wednesday increasing winds throughout the area. Northeast winds of 25 to 35 mph (20 to 30 kt) will prevail Thursday and Friday as the low moves from the Eastern Aleutians into the Gulf of Alaska. Winds will lessen to 15 mph (10 kt) Saturday the 6th and remain from the north at less than 15 mph (10 kt) through Monday the 8th. The polyna off the southern coastline of St. Lawrence Island is expected to remain and increase in size with the continued northerly flow. The polyna stretching from the east Siberian coastline down to the west coast of St. Lawrence Island is also expected to remain through the forecast period. Areas of low ice concentration within these polynyas will rapidly freeze over with new and young ice as wind speeds decrease and temperatures remain below freezing. Pack ice north of St. Lawrence Island will remain tightly compacted due to the northerly flow, and pack ice will continue to push up against the shorefast ice along the coastline from Wales to Shishmaref.
Arrows show wind direction and wind speed in knots
Remote Sensing Images
