Sea Ice Outlook Report Available
September 2009 Sea Ice Outlook: August Report
Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH)
For further information and to view the report, please go to:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2009_outlook/report_august.php
Or contact:
James Overland (Lead, Sea Ice Outlook Core Integration Group)
Email: james.e.overland [at] noaa.gov
Hajo Eicken (Member, Sea Ice Outlook Core Integration Group)
Email: hajo.eicken [at] gi.alaska.edu
The 2009 September Sea Ice Outlook: August Report is now available.
The outlook for arctic sea ice in September 2009, based on July data,
indicates a continuation of low pan-arctic sea ice extent and no
indication that a return to historical levels will occur.
The August Sea Ice Outlook Report is based on a synthesis of 13
pan-arctic contributions (plus nine updates from participating regional
groups) utilizing a range of methods.
The range of individual outlook values this month is from 4.2 to 5.0
million square kilometers, with more than half of the estimates in a
narrow range of 4.4 to 4.6 million square kilometers, representing a
near-record minimum. All estimates are well below the 1979-2007
September climatological mean value of 6.7 million square kilometers.
The uncertainty / error values, from those groups that provided them,
are about 0.4 million square kilometers, thus most of the estimates
overlap.
Warm, clear conditions led to significant sea ice melt during the month
of July, with some areas of unusually low ice extent and an atmospheric
pattern that promotes summer sea ice loss in the Pacific sector of the
Arctic. At this point in the sea ice season, the minimum extent will
largely be driven by atmospheric conditions, including winds and
temperatures.
To view the August Report, please go to:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2009_outlook/report_august.php.
To read the Regional Outlook, click on the regional tab at:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2009_outlook/report_august.php.
This August report will be the last formal monthly Sea Ice Outlook this
season, though we will provide a short announcement when the sea ice
minimum is reached in September. To track the approach to this year's
minimum, visit the NSDIC Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis website, which
has daily updates of arctic sea ice. http://nsidc.org/news/
The Sea Ice Outlook should not be considered as a formal prediction for
arctic sea ice extent, nor is it intended as a replacement for existing
efforts or centers with operational responsibility. Rather, it is a
community effort that provides an instrument for synthesis of data from
arctic observing systems and modeling activities to provide insight into
the arctic sea ice system.
For further information and to view the reports, please go to:
http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/index.php.
Or contact:
James Overland (Lead, Sea Ice Outlook Core Integration Group)
Email: james.e.overland [at] noaa.gov
Or:
Hajo Eicken (Member, Sea Ice Outlook Core Integration Group)
Email: hajo.eicken [at] gi.alaska.edu